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FOURTH QUARTER: HOW CLOSE ARE THE BEST RIVALRIES?

The subtitle for this quarter: In Praise of Red River, which always delivers. When appraising the top rivalries in the sport, it’s surprising how many of them have tilted hard in one direction over the last decade—and how few close games there have been. But the annual Big 12 tussle between the Longhorns and Sooners is the glorious, messy, dramatic exception.

It has become the game most likely to be labeled “drunk” on social media, and that’s not due to the fans in the stands. (Though they are, indeed, very drunk.) That’s due to the wild turns of events that happen with regularity in that rivalry, this past Saturday certainly being no exception. (When a fox suddenly runs across the field of the Cotton Bowl at the Texas State Fair, pretty much in downtown Dallas, you know it’s gotten strange.)

The Dash looked at the past decade of results for 18 top rivalry games, examining them for evenness and the regularity of close games. A rundown of the results:

Oklahoma-Texas (31). Number of one-score games in the last 10: eight. Average margin of victory: 7.5 points. Who won: Oklahoma seven, Texas three. This is by far the closest in terms of score, though not the most even in terms of who wins. But the only meeting in the last nine that wasn’t a one-score game was the 2018 Big 12 championship game in Jerry World. If they’re playing at the Cotton Bowl, expect drama.

Alabama-Auburn (32). Number of one-score games in the last 10: two. Average margin of victory: 20.3. Who won: Alabama seven, Auburn three. This is what Nick Saban does to rivalries: he smashes them. Although when the Tigers win the Iron Bowl, it tends to be in off-the-rails fashion. (See: Six, Kick.)

Michigan-Ohio State (33). Number of one-score games in the last 10: four. Average margin of victory: 15.1. Who won: Ohio State nine, Michigan one. The Buckeyes have not only won eight straight, but most of them have not been close. Alas, this is a storied rivalry in search of renewed competitiveness and national relevance. Maybe this year?

Army-Navy (34). Number of one-score games in the last 10; seven. Average margin of victory: 9.9. Who won: Navy 6, Army 4. After Red River, this is the closest game on average—partly because it’s usually low scoring. (The fact that Oklahoma and Texas routinely play close shootouts is another reason why it has been so ridiculously entertaining.) Navy had owned the rivalry for a long spell until Army’s recent revival under Jeff Monken evened things out.

Notre Dame-USC (35). Number of one-score games in the last 10: four. Average margin of victory: 14.1. Who won: Notre Dame seven, USC three. It’s pretty clear which program found its coach and which one has been searching. When Clay Helton and the Trojans lost by 35 in South Bend in 2017, that should have been a sign—but then USC wallpapered over that by winning its next five games, including the Pac-12 championship game. USC’s last win in the series was 2016.

Georgia-Florida (36). Number of one-score games in the last 10: four. Average margin of victory: 14.8. Who won: Georgia six, Florida four. This has been a rivalry in threes: The Gators won three straight from 2008 to '10; the Bulldogs won the next three from 2011 to '13; then back from Florida from 2014 to '16; then back to Georgia from 2017 to '19. If the Gators started a new three-year winning streak last season, it will come as a sizable shock at the end of this month.

Mississippi-Mississippi State (37). Number of one-score games in the last 10: four. Average margin of victory: 12.7. Who won: Ole Miss five, Mississippi State five. This is the only dead-even rivalry of the 18 The Dash looked at. And, of course, that five-five split has been heavily flavored by bizarrely entertaining occurrences. The Egg Bowl will forever be the weirdest vicious rivalry in the sport.

COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK

Josh Heupel (38), Tennessee. The Dash had low expectations for Heupel in his first year coaching the Volunteers, but they have clicked in a dazzling way since the calendar flipped to October. In their last two games, against SEC East opponents Missouri and South Carolina, Tennessee has scored 107 points—a whopping 56 of them in the first quarter. The Vols are throwing haymakers right off the opening bell, rolling up 444 yards of offense in those two opening quarters alone. (They lead the nation in rushing yards per game in October, at 352.5.) If it can continue this roll, Tennessee could blow up some big hopes for its next four opponents: Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky and Georgia.

COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK

Mack Brown (39), North Carolina. A season the began in the Top Ten is now a 3–3 slog after a second annual upset loss to Florida State. (If Mike Norvell has done anything well in Tallahassee, it’s beating North Carolina.) The Tar Heels were minus-three turnover margin in losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, then committed 12 penalties for 110 yards against the Seminoles. An offensive line that has allowed 23 sacks—most in the ACC—has often left star quarterback Sam Howell running for his life.

POINT AFTER

When hungry and thirsty in the perpetually underrated town of Des Moines, The Dash always recommends a visit to the mid-American classic bar, El Bait Shop (40). Do not deny yourself the bacon-wrapped tater tots, and take full advantage of the excellent beer selection. (The Singlespeed Victory Dance IPA did not disappoint.) The clientele is always interesting and the staff is always friendly. Check it out and thank The Dash later.

MORE DASH: One-Loss Contenders | USC's Market | Quality QB Depth

THIRD QUARTER: HOW GOOD IS YOUR BACKUP QUARTERBACK?

In a world of immediately eligible transfers, talented quarterbacks are less likely than ever to stick around if they aren’t starting. Which makes it harder than ever to have depth at that most critical position—a position where injuries are not at all uncommon.

After what befell Penn State (21) Saturday, it’s clear how important quarterback depth can be. When Sean Clifford was injured, the Nittany Lions were sunk at Iowa. Ta’Quan Roberson may end up being a fine college QB, but he wasn’t ready for that admittedly very difficult spot. The guy who had been Penn State’s No. 2 QB, Will Levis, is now the toast of Kentucky, where he is starting for the undefeated Wildcats and doing strange things with food.

A look at nine good situations when it comes to quarterback depth:

Caleb Williams (22), Oklahoma. Touted freshman came off the bench and saved the Sooners from defeat against arch-rival Texas, throwing for 212 yards and two touchdowns and running for 88 and another score. Down 28–7, Oklahoma got an injection of life when Williams took off on a sizzling, 66-yard touchdown run. In the fourth quarter, he also had a breathtaking bomb to Marvin Mims, who made a spectacular catch for a 52-yard TD. The young man is ready. Right now.

(The attendant question that accompanies his arrival as QB1: Did Williams just send erstwhile starter Spencer Rattler (23) into the transfer portal? Speculation already has been humming about where Rattler will play in 2022, provided he doesn’t turn pro—which would seem unwise, given what he’s put on tape. Even though he hasn’t lived up to the pre-college hype, Rattler would be an in-demand transfer.)

Stetson Bennett IV (24), Georgia. He’s played a lot of football for the Bulldogs, throwing 244 passes in three seasons. While Bennett struggled at times last year when thrust into a starting role, he’s been really good when pressed into service by injury to JT Daniels. Bennett’s efficiency rating is a robust 206.56, way up from 2020. He might have played his best game Saturday at Auburn, throwing for 231 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Most importantly, the team and coaching staff have faith in Bennett to get the job done and avoid catastrophes.

Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne (25), Notre Dame. With the Fighting Irish trailing Virginia Tech 10–0 Saturday, Buchner came in and led two touchdown drives, showcasing his dual-threat dynamism. Third-stringer Pyne played well in relief of injured starter (and Wisconsin transfer) Jack Coan when the Fighting Irish beat the Badgers in late September. Brian Kelly has a long history of dabbling in backup QB managing to get the desired results, and he could spend the second half of this season doing exactly that.

At Michigan State (26), Anthony Russo was the transfer from Temple that a lot of people assumed would win the job. But Payton Thorne has merely been the second-most efficient quarterback in the Big Ten to date. Thorne had some good performances late in the Spartans’ 2–5 season last year, then beat out Russo in a close competition. He’s been impossible to get out of the starting lineup since. Thorne is on pace to break the school’s single-season efficiency record.

Baylor Romney (27), BYU. Starter Jaren Hall missed two games after being injured against Arizona State, and Romney ably picked up the slack in wins over South Florida and Utah State. He was a combined 35 of 44 for nearly 500 yards in those two games, with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Romney was knocked out of the Utah State victory with a concussion and Hall returned to the starting lineup in the loss to Boise State. The Cougars could have a QB conundrum—perhaps even a controversy—heading into a big game at Baylor Saturday.

Zach Calzada (28), Texas A&M. His first few weeks replacing injured Haynes King sure weren’t pretty, and after the Aggies offense flailed in consecutive losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State, Calzada had a legion of critics. But he won them over in a big way in the huge upset of Alabama Saturday night, throwing for 285 yards and three touchdowns. After A&M lost a lead it had held virtually all night, falling behind 38–31 with five minutes remaining, Calzada led two scoring drives to rip the game back away from the Crimson Tide. He completed 6 of 8 passes on those final two possessions and had a key run as well.

Casey Thompson (29), Texas. First-year Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian went with Hudson Card as his season-opening starter, and that proved to be the wrong choice after two games. Thompson took over from there and has been productive, throwing for more than 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns on the season. He had five TD passes and 388 yards against Oklahoma, but the Texas defense couldn’t hold up its end of the bargain in another Red River thriller.

(Both Red River combatants could see benched Week 1 starters on the move after this season, if Rattler and Card opt to look elsewhere for playing time.)

San Diego State (30) is undefeated while playing two quarterbacks this season. Neither Jordon Brookshire nor Lucas Johnson has lit it up passing—they have combined to throw for just 585 yards in five games, with four touchdowns and two interceptions—but they’ve been effective runners (184 yards and four TDs) while directing Brady Hoke’s ground-and-pound offense. 

MORE DASH: One-Loss Contenders | USC's Market

If you thought the build-up to Seth Small's game-winning field goal against Alabama on Saturday had plenty of drama, a video of the Texas A&M kicker's family watching the game's final moment is sure to bring about chills.

With two seconds left and the game tied at 38, Small knocked down the biggest kick of the college football season from 28 yards to make Texas A&M the first unranked team in 14 years to beat Alabama—and Small's family was front and center.

In the video, Small's wife can be seen encouraging the senior kicker while she holds the hand of his mother, who appears to be praying. The anticipation only builds as you watch the family's eyes follow the kick to a hushed stadium.

As the kick goes through, Small's mother breaks down in tears, having never opened her eyes even as the crowd erupts when the kick sails through the uprights. After being overwhelmed with emotion herself, Small's wife proceeds to hop the wall and rush the field with the rest of the 12th Man.   

After the game, Small said in his postgame press conference that the kick ranked as the "third best moment of my life"—right after marrying his wife over the summer. The kicker also joked that he knows exactly what to get Jimbo Fisher after hitting game-winning field goals on the coach's last two birthdays. 

“I didn’t know what to get him, so we thought as a team that we should get a win for him," Small said.

With the win, the Aggies moved up to No. 21 in the latest AP Top 25 while Alabama dropped to fifth after the defending champion saw its 19-game winning streak come to an end.

More College Football Coverage:

• No. 1 Alabama Stunned by Unranked Texas A&M
• College Football World Reacts to A&M's Upset of Alabama
• Iowa Uses Fourth Quarter Comeback to Top Penn State
• Oklahoma Benches Rattler, Shocks Texas in Huge Comeback Win

This is a weekly Sports Illustrated series using the current college football standings to create an imaginary 12-team playoff bracket based on the model proposed this summer by CFP executives. In case you’ve forgotten, the 12-team model features (1) the six highest-ranked conference champions and (2) the next six highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions get byes to the second round (independents are not eligible to receive a bye—sorry, Notre Dame).

There is a new top seed in our 12-team Fake Playoff. Bow down to the Georgia Bulldogs and kiss their rings (if they won any recently, we would!). That’s a low blow from the unbiased Fake Selection Committee. But hey, Bulldogs, maybe this is the year!

You’ve got to agree with the committee here: After Alabama’s stunning weekend loss, Georgia has looked like the best team by a fairly healthy margin. Ah, but have no fear, Crimson Tide—you’re comfortably in the 12-team playoff despite the defeat. In fact, a whopping three teams in our playoff lost their last game, something that won’t sit well with fan bases outside of Bama (loss to A&M), Penn State (Iowa) and Oregon (Stanford). The Ducks squeak in as one of our six required conference champions.

You may see a new team in the field: Kentucky. The Wildcats find themselves in the 8–9 game (sound familiar, Cats fans?). Big Blue Nation would be disappointed with an 8–9 Big Dance matchup, but in the football playoff? They’d take it every time.

Enough already. To the playoff, we go!

1. Georgia (SEC champion)
2. Iowa (Big Ten champion)
3. Cincinnati (AAC champion)
4. Oklahoma (Big 12 champion)

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5. Michigan (Big Ten at-large)
12. Wake Forest (ACC champion)

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6. Alabama (SEC at-large)
11. Ohio State (Big Ten at-large)

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7. Michigan State (Big Ten at-large)
10. Oregon (Pac-12 champion)

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8. Kentucky (SEC at-large)
9. Penn State (Big Ten at-large)

The 8–9 game: After four weeks of creating this Fake Playoff, we have realized that one of the most difficult choices for the committee each year will likely be who hosts the 8–9 game. In this case, we chose the Wildcats, mostly because the Nittany Lions are just coming off a loss. And like the current CFP selection committee, we, too, are taking injuries into account. PSU QB Sean Clifford went down during the game, never returned, and the Lions flopped. But on a normal basis, the margin between the two teams is likely to be close. That presents a difficult and significant decision in granting home field.

Bama-Buckeyes in T-town: What’s the get-in price of an Alabama–Ohio State playoff game in Tuscaloosa? It’s probably around $300, but maybe a lot more. These one-loss football titans would be clashing for the right to meet … Cincinnati in a quarterfinal. If we thought the ticket price of Bama-OSU was high, imagine Cincinnati and the Buckeyes tangling with a trip to the semifinal on the line.

Last in: The final at-large team into the field is the Buckeyes. The committee spent many hours wrestling over such a move. Why? The decision gives the Big Ten five—five—of the 12 teams in the playoff field. That’s a lot, and creates what is sure to be at least one or two rematches along the way (Michigan State–Iowa or Ohio State–Iowa in the quarterfinals, for instance). But it also leaves out teams that feel just as deserving as the Buckeyes—who, you’ll recall, lost on their own field to an Oregon team that recently dropped a game to Stanford. For example, there’s Ole Miss, with its only loss at Alabama. There’s undefeated Oklahoma State. There’s Notre Dame, whose only loss came to the No. 3 seed. And there are at least two undefeated Group of 5 champions in Coastal Carolina and San Diego State. The nod, for now, goes to the Buckeyes.

More College Football Coverage:

• Which One-Loss Teams Are Still Playoff Contenders?
• Texas A&M's Bama Upset Disrupts National Landscape
• Oklahoma's Counter Unlocks Dangerous Rushing Offense

To make matters worse, Gold’s first words after the 28-yard field goal were about a potential fine Texas A&M would have to pay because fans stormed the field.

Gold tried to explain his bizarre approach to AL.com, telling the outlet, “That’s part of what makes radio the medium that it is. It’s the sound. There is no picture. I just know [to do it] justice—as huge as a moment as it was—I said to myself, ‘You know what? Just let the crowd tell the story.’

“And I think the fans would understand if they heard crickets or nothing, then I was gonna jump right in, but if they heard that massive roar, they would’ve known the Aggies would’ve kicked the game-winning field goal.”

First off, if you’re calling a potential game-winning field goal on radio, it’s your duty to let listeners know about the snap, hold and kick. It’s not just about “It’s good” or “It’s no good” on the radio. Imagine being in your car listening and getting NO details on the single biggest play of the week in college football. You can do this on TV, not radio. On radio, you’re just leaving your listeners completely in the dark.

Secondly, it’s hard to believe this was a planned out move instead of just salty behavior when the only thought Gold had about the top team in the nation losing to an unranked opponent in Nick Saban’s first loss to one of his former assistant coaches in Jimbo Fisher was about how much money Texas A&M would have to pay because Aggies fans ran onto the field.

Lastly, the country was already thrilled to see Alabama go down. Something tells me Gold’s no-call made the Crimson Tide’s loss even sweeter.

2. Sometimes in life, things work out beautifully. That was the case at 4:25 p.m. on Sunday when Kevin Harlan was in the booth for the wild Browns-Chargers game. 

This was the right man for the right job, and here were some of his most memorable calls from the 47–42 shootout.

3. This was by far the best moment of Drew Brees’s young broadcasting career. 

The correct answer to Brees’s important questions are simple: strawberry or even raspberry jelly only. Grape jelly is gross. And all the sandwiches should be cut diagonally. Only bad people cut a sandwich down the middle.

4. The single best clip from Sunday's NFL action came from Bengals kickers Evan McPherson, who celebrated a missed field goal. The moment McPherson realizes his kick sailed wide left at the end of the video below is priceless.

5. The fine line between fan and fanatic ...

6. The latest SI Media Podcast features a conversation with Good Morning Football’s Kyle Brandt. 

Brandt takes us behind the scenes of his audition with Peyton and Eli Manning for the host role of their Monday Night Football telecast. Brandt also talks about the void left by Nate Burleson, who left Good Morning Football for CBS This Morning, how he and Peter Schrager put together GMFB’s “Wall Streeters” bit, why he doesn’t think Good Will Hunting holds up, the most prolific sports movie actor and much more.

Following the conversation with Brandt, Sal Licata from WFAN radio and SNY TV in New York joins the podcast for the weekly “Traina Thoughts” segment. The big topic discussed this week is The Many Saints of Newark.

You can listen to the podcast below or download it on Apple, Spotify and Stitcher.

You can also watch the SI Media Podcast on YouTube.

7. RANDOM VIDEO OF THE DAY: If you missed it over the weekend, Kim Kardashian’s Saturday Night Live monologue was actually very, very good thanks to the show’s writers.

Be sure to catch up on past editions of Traina Thoughts and check out the Sports Illustrated Media Podcast hosted by Jimmy Traina on Apple, Spotify or Stitcher. You can also follow Jimmy on Twitter and Instagram.

SECOND QUARTER: WHERE HAVE ALL THE HOT JOB CANDIDATES GONE?

When the USC job opened half a lifetime ago (or maybe it was Sept. 13), the candidate list had a look to it that might no longer apply. While James Franklin and Luke Fickell remain viable and attractive—although not necessarily getable—the list below them has changed for the worse from a USC perspective. And now if you factor in an increasingly likely LSU opening, plus the continuing prospect of turnover at Nebraska, it’s fair to wonder who would be worth the megamillions that will be paid for those positions. A Dash roll call:

Matt Campbell (11), Iowa State. His Cyclones began the season in the top 10 and now are unranked after losses to Iowa and Baylor. The wins are all low-impact: FCS Northern Iowa by six, a blowout of winless UNLV and a blowout of hopeless Kansas. Credit Campbell with raising the program to a point of consistent winning, not easy at Iowa State—if he has a fifth straight winning season, it will be the first time the school has done it since the 1920s. But the brass-tacks fact is that the Clones have not risen to meet higher expectations. What was supposed to be the best season in school history might fall well short of that mark. (Not to mention the fact that Campbell doesn’t necessarily translate well to the West Coast or the South, which limits his marketability.)

Tony Elliott (12), Clemson offensive coordinator. Hard to imagine a sharper U-turn for an assistant’s prospects for landing a head-coaching job. In August, Elliott was in demand after years of being extremely choosy about which jobs he might pursue. In October, he’s under fire from Clemson fans for the puny Tigers offense. In Year 1 After Trevor, Clemson is 125th nationally against FBS competition in scoring offense and 123rd in total offense. That’s a tough sell.

P.J. Fleck (13), Minnesota. You lose to Bowling Green—winner of 13 of its last 56 games before waltzing into Minneapolis on Sept. 25—you pay the marketability price. Taking nothing away from the 11–2 season of 2019, but Fleck’s Minnesota record other than that annus mirabilis is 18–19.

Jonathan Smith (14), Oregon State. He was very much the Flavor of the Week after beating USC and Washington in consecutive games and taking the Beavers to the top of the Pac-12 North at 4–1. But let’s remember: USC is terrible, and Washington is dysfunctional on offense, and Smith followed up that twin killing by losing to Washington State. Until Smith has a winning season—he’s 13–24 in his fourth year—it’s a bit premature to put him on the USC wish list.

Also: can we talk about Lane Kiffin (15)? Word has circulated that he could be on LSU’s radar if/when Ed Orgeron completes his stunning post-2019 flameout. But other than drumming up attention, Kiffin’s résumé remains short on substance. If LSU wants to get excited about a guy with a one-point home win over Arkansas and beating up on Louisville in the season opener, The Dash suspects Alabama would be perfectly fine with that.

FIVE RISERS

Jimbo Fisher (16), Texas A&M. Hey, look who’s back. Last week the $90 million man was being (rightly) skewered for an offensive dud of a 3–2 season. This week he’s back to being a hero in College Station—and a person of interest in Baton Rouge—after doing the hardest thing in college football: beating Alabama. If the purple-and-gold school with the Saban Complex wants to pay Fisher $10 million a year to try to beat the Tide, go for it.

Mark Stoops (17), Kentucky. The last coach who started a season 6–0 in Lexington was a Mr. Paul Bryant, in 1950. If Stoops can’t parlay that into a pile of cash or a different job, he’s not trying hard enough. While Stoops may be grazing the ceiling of what he can do at Kentucky, it still might be preferable to trying to resurrect the faded glory of Nebraska. He’s not a fit at USC. Could LSU take an interest?

Sonny Dykes (18), SMU. He’s won 26 of his last 32 at SMU, including all six this season. Dykes is as Texas as frontage roads and lizard-skin boots. He’s tried the West Coast and Pac-12 once, and that won’t happen again. But if LSU opens and gets to a second tier of candidates, Dykes could wiggle his way into the conversation. LSU got a taste of pyrotechnic offense in 2019, and it tasted good. (Granted, a Dykes hire would require athletic director Scott Woodward to go against his own tendencies, which is to hire big names at staggering prices.)

Jamey Chadwell (19), Coastal Carolina. He might not be ready for USC or LSU or Nebraska, but as the dominoes fall somebody has to take a serious run at the guy who has won 17 of his last 18 games. The Chanticleers employ a creative option offense and a banzai blitz defense that is fun to watch. They have been killing teams this season but lack the schedule to gain College Football Playoff traction. Potential added bonus: Would Chadwell take ace quarterback Grayson McCall with him somewhere else?

Also: Is Dave Clawson (20) right where he should be? The Wake Forest coach is not a product of the traditional football machinery, attending academically prestigious Williams College and doing most of his coaching outside the high end of FBS. Not to say that he couldn’t succeed in a lot of places, but Wake is a very good fit—albeit a difficult job. Wouldn’t blame him for looking elsewhere, but he can afford to be selective in search of a place that would suit his outlook and strengths.

MORE DASH: One-Loss Contenders